These parallel developments appear to be elements of a bigger hydro-political strategy wherein the riparian countries aim to increase their water utilisation to put facts on the ground (and underpin legal claims based on those uses) and increase their bargaining position for renegotiations of volumetric water allocations. The Ethiopian government has always availed itself of its power to transfer local populations off land it decides to declare a public resource. Indeed, as Tekuya notes, Ethiopia persistently objected to the 1929 and 1959 treaties and made clear that its failure to exploit the Nile resulted from a lack of capacity rather than a lack of a legal right to do so. Ethiopian Yearbook of International Law 2017. On the surface, the 558 ft tall dam Africa's biggest hydropower project belies Ethiopia's financial muscle. Egypt, Ethiopia to form joint committee on Renaissance Dam. The dispute escalated in 2011 when Ethiopia began construction of a major new dam, the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), in the absence of any agreement with downstream Egypt. While such dams also come with long-term benefits to local populations, the chief beneficiary will always be the state, which reaps profits from the sale of surplus electricity. In general, the Ethiopian development philosophy rests on two pillars: mega-dams and mega-agricultural projects. Success on this endeavor will only occur under a legally binding regime that ensures mutually beneficial rights. Another argument Egypt might adduce concerns the DoP. Yet, Ethiopia is fully aware of Somalias economic dependence on the rivers originating from Ethiopias highlands. The dispute over the GERD is part of a long-standing feud between Egypt and Sudanthe downstream stateson the one hand, and Ethiopia and the upstream riparians on the other over access to the Niles waters, which are considered a lifeline for millions of people living in Egypt and Sudan. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) is a 6000 MW hydropower project on the Blue Nile, which the Ethiopian government plans to build to fulfill the country's energy needs. The disadvantages for Egypt and Sudan are the possibility of reduced river flow, although this is only really a problem during the years of filling the dam. His successor, Mohamed Morsi, said that Egypt was prepared to defend each drop of Nile water with blood. An armed conflict has not emerged, but there are suggestions that Egyptian intelligence services undermined Ethiopia internally by assisting the Oromo Liberation Front in its campaign of civil unrest in Ethiopia in 2016. Given these considerations, it seems that Ethiopia has all but won the dispute. (2014). Still, if the exception was somehow activated, it would mean that Egypt remains entitled to 66% of the Nile River waters and that this figure should be used as the baseline for any future negotiations. Cairo Controversy prevailed in the Egyptian public opinion, after Deltares, a Dutch advisory institute, announced on Sept. 15 its withdrawal from a study to assess the risks that the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, which is under construction on the Blue Nile, can cause to Egypt and Sudan. Ethiopian general threatens military force to defend Nile dam as negotiations with Egypt falter. Article IV of the DoP provides that the parties shall utilize their shared water resources in their respective territories in an equitable and reasonable manner and Article III provides that the parties shall take all appropriate measures to prevent the causing of significant harm in utilizing the Blue/Main Nile. Ethiopia can make a strong case that the operation of the Dam complies with each principle. Ethiopia, one of the poorest countries in Africa, has the second largest population in the continent. But controversy has surrounded the project ever since it was announced in 2011 especially concerning its . The instrument was a success in terms of cooling tensions between the states which seemed increasingly likely to come to blows. Flashcards. An optimistic trend among todays African commentators focuses primarily on economic growth rates and pays little attention to human tolls, questions of transparency and accountability, and the sustainability of growth. Chinese banks provided financing for the purchase of the turbines and electrical equipment for the hydroelectric plants. Construction of the 6,000-megawatt, US $5 billion Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) began . GIGA Focus No. 17th round of GERD tripartite talks hits wall in Cairo. While the water will return to its normal state before reaching Egypt, the damage to these populations will be permanent. An agreement between Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam is within reach, with the United Nations standing ready to support talks and the African Union-led process to settle remaining differences, the Under-Secretary-General for Political and Peacebuilding Affairs told the Security Council in a 29 June videoconference meeting*. Review a brief history of copyright in the United States. The official narrative is that Ethiopia can uproot poverty and bring about a definitive end to social and economic underdevelopment by means of the construction of a series of mega-dams combined with the development of the national energy infrastructure. Kandeel, A. The GDP per capita in Ethiopia is only $475. Egypts main argument might be that, despite being unsatisfactory and anachronistic, the Nile Waters Treaties remain good law and are enforceable against the respective parties. . Trilateral talks between Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan to finalise an agreement on a cooperation framework for the GERD have been mediated by the African Union, World Bank and United States. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) is a critical project that intends to provide hydroelectricity to support the livelihoods of millions of people in the region. The Kenyan Lake is heavily dependent on the fresh water and vital nutrients supplied by the rivers annual floods, making it a paradise for fisheries. Ethiopia argues that developing this resource is crucial to its economic development, and to overcoming poverty and famine, that have plagued the country in the past. However, as noted above, the trouble with relying on the DoP is that its legal status is not clearly defined. Before discussing the benefits, the article will brief the general technical overview of the GERDP. Sudan and Egypt, which rely most heavily on the . Monday January 2, 2017. Negotiations resumed three weeks after Al-Sisi took office in June 2014, and an agreement was made to resume negotiations - an achievementhailed by both Egypt and Ethiopia as a new chapter in relations between Egypt and Ethiopia based on openness and mutual understanding and cooperation (Omar, 2014). One senior advisor to former Ethiopian prime minister Meles Zenawi alluded to it when he said that Ethiopia will supply the electricity, Sudan the food, and Egypt the money. To which we might add, and South Sudan will supply the oil.. Ethiopia could argue that those imperial powers did not foresee the decolonisation of Africa and that this represented a watershed event that profoundly changed the foundation on which the Nile Water Treaties were constructed. Concern has focused in particular on Lake Turkana, which derives 90 per cent of its water from the Omo River on which the Gilgel Gibe III Dam was built. Egypt Forced to Negotiate on Nile Dam. The US has revived diplomatic efforts to resolve the dispute sparked by Ethiopia's Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) project on the Nile. In response, Ethiopia threatened military force to defend the dam and protect its interests (The New Arab, 2020a). Although the immediate issue at stakesecuring a technical agreement on the filling of the GERDs reservoiris among Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan, the broader and longer-term goal should be for all 11 statesincluding Tanzania, Uganda, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Rwanda, Burundi, Kenya, Eritrea, and South Sudanto agree on a legal regime for the management of this important watercourse. In any event, the dispute remains. The Ethiopian government is spending $4.7 billion to construct the 1,780-meter dam across the Blue Nile. For nearly a century, as a legacy of colonialism, Egypt enjoyed what Tekuya referred to as a hydro-hegemony over the Nile; despite Ethiopia contributing 86% to its waters. While the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) is taking shape on . The disadvantages for Egypt and Sudan are the possibility of reduced river flow, although this is only really a problem during the years of filling the dam. Therefore, a negotiated position that favours Ethiopia is likely to be reached once it becomes politically palatable enough inside Egypt. Challenges for water sharing in the Nile basin: changing geo-politics and changing climate. [18] Third, Egypt should abandon continued references to its so-called natural historical rights (i.e., the water rights granted Egypt by the 1929 Anglo-Egyptian Treaty and the 1959 Agreement between Egypt and Sudan). The largest permanent desert lake in the world, Turkana has three national parks that are now listed as UNESCO World Heritage Sites. One question that keeps coming up is: Will Ethiopia be willing to release enough water from the reservoir to help mitigate a drought downstream? What could have been strictly technical negotiations have turned into a political deadlock. Water scarcity is a growing problem. l It is in the Benishangul-Gumuz Region of Ethiopia, about 15 km east of the border with Sudan. The Chinese then took over the funding amidst heightened international concern regarding the social, technical, and environmental repercussions of the Ethiopian dams. Sudan, caught between the competing interests of both Egypt and Ethiopia, has been changing its stance on the issue. 2. Addis Ababa expects to sell no less than 4,000 Megawatts (MW) of electricity to its regional partners in the coming decade. Hence, the customary law argument might be too ambitious. On March 4, 1982, Bertha Wilson became the first woman appointed to the Supreme Court of Canada. Nile negotiations break down as Egypt, Sudan accuse Ethiopia of rejecting legally binding agreement. The latter, in Article 2(4), allocated acquired rights of 66% of Nile water to Egypt and 22% to Sudan (with the remaining 12% attributed to leakage). It signifies that Egypts de facto veto power on major upstream dams has been broken, and it clearly demonstrates the political will of Ethiopia to develop its water infrastructure even in the absence of a comprehensive basin agreement. Even then, the initial studies did not extend beyond the borders with Kenya. At 6,000 MW, the dam will be the largest hydroelectric power plant in Africa when completed at 2017(IPoE, 2013). Owned and operated by the Ethiopian Electric Power company, the 145-m-tall roller-compacted concrete gravity dam . Indeed, Sudan had initially opposed the Dam but changed its position in 2012 after consultations with Ethiopia. Egypt has also escalated its call to the international community to get involved. Attia, H. & Saleh, M. (2021). This is a matter of acute concern given that Egypt depends on the Nile for about 97% of its irrigation and drinking water. Further, it means that this figure should be used to assess the impact of the Dam on the Egyptian economy for the purposes of calculating compensation resulting from loss of flow. Downstream countries Egypt and Sudan have expressed concerns over the impacts of the dam on their water supply. As a hydroelectric project, the dam is expected to generate 6,000 megawatts of electricity. It was in the hope of protecting Lake Turkana against such threats that it was listed as a World Heritage Site. The change of government in Egypt led to a more conciliatory approach (Von Lossow & Roll, 2015). Cairo - U.S. Special Envoy to the Horn of Africa Ambassador Mike Hammer met with senior Egyptian government officials on July 25 to advance a diplomatic resolution on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) that supports the water needs, economy, and livelihood of all Egyptians, Sudanese, and Ethiopians. Cameroon's Choupo-Moting scores winner as Bayern reclaim Bundesliga top.. English Premier League results & fixtures (26th matchday), Germany Bundesliga results & fixtures (23rd matchday), Israeli delegation expelled from the African Union summit. Moreover, it arguably prohibits any reduction of flow to Egypt by limiting Ethiopias use of the Dam to electricity generation alone. Second came the 2015 Declaration of Principles (DoP) which concerned the Dam specifically (rather than the Nile more broadly). At the same. Security implications of growing water scarcity in Egypt. Stratfor Worldview. These are two of the largest dams in Africa. Despite the fact that newly independent Sudan in the late 1950s was literally forced by a dominant Egypt into a highly asymmetrical water-sharing arrangement, Sudan has rarely challenged this arrangement. Learn. - Ethiopia's massive. Poverty alleviation, which is a major concern for all Nile Basin countries, could form the basis of a cooperative arrangement between all the Niles riparians. It will be the largest hydropower project in Africa. Indeed, Egypt has called the filling of the dam an existential threat, as it fears the dam will negatively impact the countrys water supplies. According to Article 16, former colonies do not inherit the treaty obligations of their former colonial rulers and instead receive a clean slate. However, Egypt could argue that the territorial treaty exception, under Articles 11 and 12, applies whereby colonial treaty provisions concerning boundaries must survive the impact of succession and bind successor states. The GERD has become a new reality challenging the traditional dynamics in the Nile River Basin. It simultaneously expects that this role will change Ethiopias international status from a country perceived as poor and dependent on foreign aid to a regional power able to provide vital resources to its surrounding region. In terms of putative new law, namely the Watercourses Convention and the DoP, the key principles of equitable utilisation and no significant harm seem to leave ample room to accommodate the construction of a dam for hydroelectric generation purposes. The Friends of Lake Turkana, an NGO representing indigenous groups whose livelihoods are dependent on the Lake, filed a suit to halt the construction of the dam. His research indicates that rapid filling of the reservoir could lead to severe economic losses, though he notes that expanding groundwater extraction, adjusting the operation of Egypt's Aswan High Dam, and cultivating crops that require less water could help offset some of the impact. The Eastern Nile Basin is of critical geopolitical importance to the Niles overall hydro-political regime. Thus, as with the Watercourses Convention and the CFA, the DoP does not offer a clear legal resolution to the dispute. L'Europe en Formation, 365(3), 99-138. The first filling of the dam in July 2020 went uneventfully. Officials in Addis Ababa argue that the GERD will have no major impact on water flow into the Nile, instead arguing that the hydropower dam will provide benefits to countries in the region, including as a source of affordable electric power and as a major mechanism for the management of the Nile, including the mitigation of droughts and water salinity. Ethiopia has never 'consumed' significant shares of the Niles water so far, as its previous political and economic fragility in combination with a lack of external financial support, due to persistent Egyptian opposition to projects upstream, prevented it from implementing large-scale projects. Water Policy, 16(4), 595-608. Nevertheless, it is important to take stock of the human costs, social problems, and lasting environmental impacts of this strategy which have already drawn considerable criticism and concern. Ethiopia should get its fair share of water that originates in Ethiopia. The New Arab (2020b). Trilateral talks mediated by the United States and World Bank from November 2019 to February 2020 collapsed as Ethiopia rejected a binding agreement with Egypt and Sudan on the filling and operation of the GERD, which led to both downstream countries requesting intervention from the UN Security Council (UNSC) in May 2020 (Kandeel, 2020). In contrast, if water from the Dam were to be used for irrigation purposes by Ethiopia (i.e. Because Ethiopia has been so cavalier with regard to the technical aspects of its dams, portions of them have also caved in soon after they began operation. The three fillings hitherto, with the most recent in August 2022, imposed no discernible harm on downstream states. The Nile waters have historically been governed by the Nile Waters Treaties. These colonial-era agreements comprise (i) the 1902 Anglo-Ethiopian Treaty (with the UK representing modern-day Sudan); (ii) the 1929 Anglo-Egyptian Treaty (with the UK representing modern-day Kenya and Uganda) and (iii) the 1959 Egypt-Sudan Treaty (with the UK now absent as a result of decolonisation). Although the case has been dropped, the organisations work focused international attention on the dams potential detrimental impacts on the lakes habitat. According to some estimates, the Ethiopian government had to arrange for the resettlement of 1.5 million people in the four regions of Gambela, Somali, Afar, and Benishangul-Gumuz. Given the advancement of the dam construction - the GERD being, as of March 2015, 40% complete, according to Ethiopia - Egypt had good reason to reconsider its position (RANE, 2015). Another important area of cooperation is research, especially in areas like climate change, the fight against terrorism and extremism, and human rights. This exception was implemented to mitigate the risk of decolonisation leading to boundary wars. The filling time is estimated to take about 10 years, during which the Blue Nile water flows would be reduced. "The Blue Nile is the lifeblood of Egypt and its people and critics fear the dam could significantly reduce water flow to the country." "Climate change is such a big unknown. The Grand Renaissance Dam and prospects for cooperation on the Eastern Nile. Revisiting hydro-hegemony from a benefitsharing perspective: the case of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. The 1902 Treaty did not preclude Ethiopia from undertaking works that might reduce, but not arrest, the flow of waters. Download PDF 1.40 MB. On Feb. 26, Ethiopia temporarily suspended its . Both Egypt and Ethiopia could make arguments in support of their positions. Egypt says. Ethiopia has two major plans for these rivers, which both flow into Somalia, in the form of the Wabe Shebelle and the Genale Dawa power plants. These countries should return to the NBIs Cooperative Framework Agreement (CFA), which was concluded in 2010, try to resolve the disagreements that caused Egypt and Sudan to decline to sign the CFA, and use it as a model for a future binding legal regime. It concludes that Ethiopias legal position is far stronger and that a negotiated agreement in its favour is the most likely outcome of the dispute. Von Lossow, T. & Roll, S. (2015). (2014). Egypt wants control and guarantees for its share of Nile waters. Such a meaningful resource-sharing agreement should not only resolve the conflict over water-use rights among the riparian states, but it should help define concepts such as equitable and reasonable use and significant harm, which have been used by the downstream states in their criticisms of the GERD. Perhaps even more consequential is the fact that this agreement granted Egypt veto power over future Nile River projects. Although Egypt and Sudan are likely to resist efforts to include the other upstream riparians in the negotiations or to allow a regional organization, such as the NBI, to serve as an implementing organ, they must understand that the Nile River is a regional watercourse and its management must be approached from a regional perspective. This article considers water security in the context of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (the Dam). Churning waters: Strategic shifts in the Nile basin. But this did not rule out eruptions of tension, not just between local communities and the central government, but also between Ethiopia and its neighbours. In turn, Egypt water policy and management should be changes or modified to overcome the great challenges. This represents a new challenge to the basins current hydro-political regime and status quo, as it may drive Sudans interest in renegotiating its current quota(Link et al., 2012;Whittington et al., 2014). Search for jobs related to Disadvantages of the grand ethiopian renaissance dam or hire on the world's largest freelancing marketplace with 20m+ jobs. Already, the United States has threatened to withhold development aid to Ethiopia if the conflict is not resolved and an agreement reached. Another impressive snippet of information is that the Government of Ethiopia is financing the entire project, along with loans mainly from China. As noted above, the instrument concedes for the first time that Ethiopia has legitimate interests over the Nile. At stake, too, is . Practically from the outset, the World Bank and international donors withdrew funding due to a lack of transparency, driven home when it was learned that the construction had begun without a permit from the Environmental Protection Agency in Ethiopia.
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