An Emerson poll conducted shortly before Election Day was completely off, showing Trump and Biden neck-to-neck. For Tisdell, the two major issues that weigh on his mind this year are the riots and the pandemic. Sawyer County, Wisconsin, and Clallam County, Washington, have substantial Native American populations, the authors said. Biden has talked both ways, so its hard for me to really grasp where he is on the issue. While these are the top bellwether counties, there are many more that are considered to be predictive. I just got on Social Security disability, because I cant work anymore. If that date were to change, the Ohio legislature is the only one who can request to postpone or change the date of an election through legislative action.. I got a life. But Hamilton thinks more changes are needed. Myerss morals include being respectful to others, and he thinks Trump has failed in that regard. John Hawker, a 74-year-old Port Clinton resident who grew up in Toledo, was sitting at the end of the bar and also weighed in on the state of affairs. Its a county where the residents are proud of its powdered metal factories and where the Ford F-Series is as ubiquitous as the American flag. And then theres Vigo Countyin Indianathe quintessential bellwether that has correctly picked the winner in all but two elections since 1888. Theres too much mishandling, she said. There is another bellwether list of 58 counties that has correctly picked each president since 2000; Trump won 51 of them by an average margin of nearly 15 points. Workforce shortages are mostly everywhere, he said. First, we can readily imagine that some counties demographically/politically mirror the nation, and thus monitoring this small set of counties closely would tell us with high predictive reliability what will happen nationally. Im not happy with either party. A bellwether is a leader or an indicator of trends.. These 10 bellwether counties five in Sun Belt battlegrounds, five in the Frost Belt (loosely defined to include Iowa) could point us toward each state's winner. Copyright 2000 - 2023 The Epoch Times Association Inc. All Rights Reserved. In a 2020 article, Daniel Zimny-Schmitt and Michael Harris look for bellwether counties in the period 1980-2016 and identify nineteen such. Westmoreland is the only one in the South; Clallam is the only county on the West Coast, and Hidalgo and Valencia are the only counties in the Mountain West. This year, the local courthouse in Ridgway has been bustling with new voter registrations and party affiliation changes. Third, it lists the fraction of bellwether counties each candidate won Obama at 18 of 19, Trump at 18 of 19 and Biden at one of 19. I look at the picture of what hes doing for my country.. To find out more about cookies and change your preferences, visit our, looked to ten allegedly bellwether counties, The Russia-Ukraine War: a challenge to international order, Global Energy Politics and Cost of Living Crisis, The New Normal: a dual track approach to health strategy and policy, Inside the Deal: how the EU got Brexit done. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. Jacobs believes theres more enthusiasm for Trump now than before the 2016 electionin Elk County and around the country. Many of its residents include farmers, retirees who love to fish, and more than 3,300 military veterans. Median household incomes range from $65,000 in Bremer County, Iowa, to $32,000 in Hidalgo County, New Mexico. Titchner, a Vietnam veteran, has been painting houses for 45 years and said he votes based on the candidate, rather than the party. Ottawa County in Ohio has been on target every four years since 1964, and Bexar County in Texas (San Antonio) has had only one miss since 1928 (preferring the Democrat Hubert Humphrey in 1968). I believe in what they call entitlement programs, Hamilton said. . There is another bellwether list of 58 counties that has correctly picked each president since 2000. I mean the whole world ought to be mad at China, we should all be going to war against them. (Cara Ding/The Epoch Times). Sawyer County, Wisconsin, and Clallam County, Washington, have substantial Native American populations, the authors said. January 4, 2021: Rep. Jordan tweets an Epoch Times article about his effort to challenge Electoral College votes. The 19 bellwethers tend to be poorer, whiter, older, and less educated than the rest of the country, according to an August paper by researchers from the University of Denver and University of New Hampshire. Understanding the I-4 corridor's bellwether mojo requires defining the area. The county, located along the Illinois border, has a mix of rural and urban demographics. Terry Titchner, 70, said hes voting for Biden because he doesnt trust Trump. In particular, recent research which identified nineteen bellwether counties found that they "tended to be whiter, older, less educated, have lower median incomes, have a lower percentage of workers in the labor force, and have higher rates of vacant housing than the country as a whole." Hes concerned about big government, burdensome regulations, and encroachments on the Constitution. "The three potentially competitive races in Virginia with Democratic incumbents could be a national bellwether," veteran Virginia political analyst Bob Holsworth told The Epoch Times. The morale of the people up there is bad. Nestled along Lake Erie in the northwest of the state between Toledo and Cleveland, the area has a population of 40,364, according to the 2020 Census. We have become so divided. Were still there right now as a bellwether county, but we dont know whether well keep it up.. From 1980 to 2012, for instance, these bellwether counties consistently voted within a few points of the national popular vote. Part of his route is driving up to Detroit and Flint, Michigan, every day. Jacobs, 58, a gift store manager in Ridgway, said she voted for Obama but didnt follow politics closely at the time. What Should Fiscal and Social Policy in a Sustainable Economy Look Like? When he became a Christian, he struggled with his unions blind support for Democratic candidates, most of whom arent pro-life, he said. I think its very political right now, honestly. We just couldnt believe that Trump had lost.. In 2020, Vigo went for Trump by nearly 15 points, roughly the same as in 2016. Whether you respect the man or not, he is still the president of the United States and you should respect that.. Trump wasnt Tom TO Fitchs first choice in the 2016 primaryhe voted for Sen. Ted Cruz. Their fear is real, mine is. Armagost was lucky during the shutdowns, as bike shop repairs and maintenance were considered essential and he remained in business. "The Wall Street Journal and The Epoch Times independently analyzed the results of 19 counties around the United States that have nearly perfect presidential voting records over the last 40 years. For Brendon, another resident of Riley who declined to disclose his last name, his spiritual belief will lead him not to vote at all this year. We need election reform.. Former President Trump and his supporters continue to loudly assert that he really won the 2020 election even though all the alleged direct evidence of fraud has not passed the sniff test of local courts, including those with Republican judges. Jim Hoft is the founder and editor of The Gateway Pundit, one of the top conservative news outlets in America. The ones he lost went to Biden by a margin of about 4 points on average. Fifteen percent is a very large gap to close, he said. This year, after seeing the country shut down amid the pandemic, and seeing riots break out in many cities, I just think its time that I should start voting, she said. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. Your email address will not be published. It could be said that Ottawa County is one of the top bellwether counties in Ohio, if not the country. Blaine County. This includes personalizing content and advertising. The counties are also mostly small and rural. In 2020, amid widespread accusations of Democrat cheating, these bellwethers were not even close checking in at a mind-blowing 6%! It was everything, all at once, all of a sudden. I cant lead that kind of lifestyle.. Miller is often faced with tough decisions in his business. The bellwether scores map highlights the fact that many states have a good bellwether county or two, even if they did not make the list of the 19 counties which have always voted for the winning candidate, they said. An Emerson poll conducted shortly before Election Day was completely off, showing Trump and Biden neck and neck. The All-Or-Nothing Bellwether: These are states or counties that choose the national winner every time. The counties are also mostly small and rural. Shortened URL for this post:https://bit.ly/3JzjZ3j. In Terre Haute, 52-year-old Scott Hamilton said the main issue for him in this election is how divided the nation is; he said Trump is mostly to blame. I think everyone has the same opinion that things arent good.. She said she almost never votes, but this year decided to vote for President Donald Trump. Second, when we examine a short string of elections, we do indeed, find that some counties go with the winner in all (or virtually all the elections). Mainstream polls are suggesting a Pennsylvania win for Biden, but, if the 2016 polls were anything to go by, theyre about as useful as a screen door on a submarine. Previously, he covered national topics including politics, economy, education, and law enforcement. That streak, which extended back to when the county supported Harry Truman became president ended in the 2020 Presidential Election when the Donald Trump won the county. There is another bellwether list of 58 counties that has correctly picked each president since 2000. It was easy. And we just want that to continue. Thus, for some sequences of elections there are indeed, bellwether counties. Washington state's Clallam County was the outlier, backing Joe Biden in a state he won by more than 19 points. Hes feeding people, instead of beating them up, to get stuff accomplished. Hawker told The Epoch Times he voted for Trump in both the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, and if he wouldve been re-elected, the country wouldnt be facing the problems they are having now. Ottawa County is on the doorstep of a Democratic stronghold, about 35 miles east of Toledo in neighboring Wood County. High scoring bellwether counties in these regions tend to border other high-scoring counties, unlike their counterparts in the South and West, which tend to see high scoring bellwethers somewhat isolated from each other. Tammy, who didnt want to provide her last name, told The Epoch Times that during the summer leading up to the 2020 presidential election, the area had a regatta on Lake Erie in Marblehead in support of Donald Trump. (Cara Ding/The Epoch Times). Also, spare a thought for Webster County in Georgia. With respect to the notion that bellwethers are demographically representative, this appears not to true. RIDGWAY, Pa.Tucked into a wooded valley in north-central Pennsylvania is the bellwether borough of Ridgway, the county seat of Elk County. I know a lot of people dont like him, because of his tweets and things that he says, and I kind of agree with that. Those who believe that Donald Trump won the 2020 presidential election have held up his victories in many bellwether counties as evidence of electoral fraud. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. She registered as a Democrat about 40 years ago and has never bothered to change her affiliation, although she voted for Trump in 2016 and plans to do the same this year. As the 2022 mid-term elections near (May 3 in Ohio), one might think that the Republican and Democratic headquarters might be open and in full swing, but at both party offices the week of Feb. 21, the lights were out and no one was occupying the desks inside or answering the phones. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. Growth in recent years has been a challenge, if not nonexistent, he said. Overall, the county is in good shape, and has a lot going for it.. Portman wont be seeking reelection; seven Republicans are competing in the primary election for the partys nomination: Matt Dolan, Mike Gibbons, Josh Mandel, Neil Patel, Mark Pukita, Jane Timken, and J.D. A small-business owner, who didnt want to be identified, said hes voting for Biden. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. When Republican Dr. Ted Bowlus defeated Democrat Joel Kuhlman in the 2016 election, it completed a single-party commission. Only one, Clallam County in Washington, went for former Vice President Joe Biden and only by about a 3 point margin. Getting fertilizer can be a challenge.. Nothing has changed regarding the date of the May 3 primary election, Baumgardner said. She thinks economic distress from COVID-19 will fuel more unrest. Residents who were asked about any candidate choices tended to be true to their reputation as a bellwether county, with more of a wait-and-see type of attitude of seeing whos going to step up as a presidential candidate in 2024. I dont think you should take that away from me.. He was concerned about the situation in Ukraine. They caused this, they brought it on because they dont like him, Fannin said. He predicts that many Trump voters will start to waver in the weeks leading up to the election and will end up not voting. Its home to four universities, filled with many Democratic-leaning students. In Ridgway, Biden supporters were more difficult to find and more reluctant to talk than Trump supporters, but a few yard signs were dotted around. But as for America, I feel he would do the best job.. Election bellwether counties in the United States are counties that vote in alignment with the country as a whole in United States presidential elections, so that the county votes for the candidate who ultimately wins the election. Im not happy with the way things are now. Over the past nearly 40 years, presidential elections have observed an intriguing phenomenon: 19 counties in the nation have always voted for the winner, be it Republican or Democrat. As a father, I would be curious about what my kids are doing.. Our mission is to put on honest elections.. A number of fertilizer plants closed across the country last year due to natural gas shortages. He worked for a tree service company for some years, but was laid off again. Before the 2020 election, Clallam was one of 19 counties with an unbroken record of voting for the winning presidential candidate since 1980. Over the same time period, Democrat registrations have dipped from 9,526 to 7,576. Hes probably the best candidate out there for whats going on in our country right now, Martin said. Pre-performance Lobby events. Things have been bad for so long, they dont care.. We and the rest of the states boards of elections have been directed by the Ohio Secretary of States Office to hold the election on May 3. Mike DeWine is running for reelection and facing candidates Joe Blystone, Jim Renacci, and Ron Hood in the primary. Eleven of the nineteen were located in just six Midwestern states, and Wisconsin alone is home to four, they said. They run the gamut from. The United States needs to get back to where were responsible, energy independent, and get away from the thought process of these liberal socialists in office., Government is out of control, he added. In the May 3 primary, theres also a mix of familiar names with new candidates on the ballot.
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