Republicans also have to do drive up their own turnout in big population areas like Charlotte, but also have to drive up margins in lots of medium-size population counties like Union (Charlotte suburb). All rights reserved. What's more, in this year's election voters in leading bellwether counties didn't just come out for Donald Trump marginally; they backed him in droves. Out of 3,141 counties, there were 22 counties that had successfully voted for the winning candidate in each and every election between 1988 and 2016 (included). Thank you for supporting our journalism. The fact that there are fewer swing counties means that there are fewer potential bellwether counties. Arapahoe County. And as was true in 2016, those counties voted substantially to the right of the nation. Tampa's Hillsborough County is a top bellwether -- since 1960, no candidate has won Florida . In 1960, President John F. Kennedy lostall three states and won the White House, beating out future President Richard Nixon, according toSnopes. PHOTO ILLUSTRATION BY EMILY SCHERER / GETTY IMAGES. Suburban Denvers Arapahoe and Jefferson counties have moved in tandem for the past four elections. Also key is Volusia, which represents a large county that has been close to the overall vote. . A Trump win is probably out of the question in a county thats home to Des Moines and the state capitol -- he finished third here in the caucuses behind first-place finisher Rubio and runner-up Cruz -- but he will go a long way toward carrying the state if he can keep it close. It went with the exact margin for Romney in 2012 statewide and McCain statewide in 2008. Asingle county could have as few as 88 residents,like Kalawao County, Hawaii. We know these counties are the best of the best at predicting the election winner. Fifth, it listswhether each candidate's politicalparty won seats in the House of Representatives which occurred withObama andTrump, but not Biden. The 13 Bellwether Counties That Could Decide The Election. They were particularly representative in 2012, when the average 1980-to-2016 bellwether county was just 0.8 points more Democratic than the nation. It came close to reflecting the statewide vote in 2012. Maricopa (home to Phoenix) is the most populous county in the state by far 60 percent of voters live here. In politics, the term often applies in a metaphorical sense to characterize a geographic region where political tendencies match in microcosm those of a wider area, such that the result of an election in the former region might predict the eventual result in the latter. ET. If they are tipping to Clinton, it's over. Scott Walker all three times his name appeared on the ballot. But both are worth watching. It's a largely rural area of 40,000 residents that's home to a nuclear power plant, a sprawling US National Guard training facility and islands that the British Royal Navy battled for and lost during the War of 1812. Lets quickly recap what we have established so far: In this post we will further relax the constraint by analyzing counties that voted Democrat in 2008 and Republican in 2016 only; that is, the switch counties in the most recent elections. Both Clinton and Trump need to turn out their bases in Fulton (Atlanta). A surge in African-American turnout helped deliver Cincinnatis Hamilton County to Obama in 2008, making him the first Democratic presidential nominee since Lyndon Johnson to carry the population hub of southwest Ohio. They simply vote on merit. But after twice voting for George W. Bush, it has since moved well to the left. For the first time "in years," says Mr Brikmanis, the Democratic National Party chose not to set up a local headquarters ahead of the November election. Racine County2016 primary winners: Sanders, Cruz, Latest voter registration totals: 113,599No party registration. Marcela Stewart speaks to a voter at an event to encourage minority voter turnout n Cutler Bay, Fla., on Sunday. a suburban Philadelphia county that went for Hillary Clinton in 2016 with 52.6% of the vote, and that . Kerry Sheridan/AFP/Getty Images They are not a statistical curiosity, but the perfect distillation or embodiment of the whole countrys sentiment. The Art Of The Vote: Who Designs The Ballots We Cast. Here are the top 25 counties which voted over 60% for the Democrat party in 2008, and then voted Republican in 2016: There is no doubt these 25 counties heavily favor the Democrat party. To do so, the popular vote winner of each county for every presidential election from 1980 through 2016 was tabulated and mapped, yielding 19 true bellwether counties for the period. Ron Elving . Follow us on Telegram to be notified when we release the remaining articles. Democrats Woodrow Wilson, John F. Kennedy, Bill Clinton and Grover Cleveland (twice) won elections while losing ground in the House, per The Atlantic. Of the 19 counties that had a perfect record between 1980 and 2016, all but one voted to reelect President Donald Trump, who lost to Joe Biden in both the national popular vote and in nearly. According to an analysis of bellwether states and counties by Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections, "Vigo County, Indiana is the most prominent bellwether of presidential. With each new section we relaxed the constraint, to include the most friendly Democrat voting counties in the country (based on the 2008 election). Some of the same messages that are going to work in Northeastern Ohio are maybe not going to work as well down here, said county GOP Chairman Alex Triantafilou. Joe Biden (631) Vigo County, Indiana, is a serious bellwether county. Allegheny (Pittsburgh) is also key for Democrats. They're just facts about the vote. I would love to see Clinton or Kaine hold a truckstop rally and appeal to those guys., Latest voter registration totals: 146,952No party registration. 'Forest defenders' begin week of action to block Atlanta police training center, Frogxit: Harry and Meghan get what they asked for, More Iranian schoolgirls fall ill, protests erupt, Russell Brand was challenged to give examples of MSNBC pushing misinformation (that was a BAD idea), Secretary of the Army Guarantees a Lot of Young Soldiers Will Die but Has the Right Thoughts and Feelings, California - Do Not Sell My Personal Information. Do you know this baby? It's happened before. It did go for John Kerry in 2004, though, when Bush won the state, so let's see if Monroe retains its bellwether status beyond two elections or if it was just a cheeseburger in paradise. Other swing counties to watch: Monroe and Calhoun. The question is just how big of a margin she can run up here -- where roughly two-thirds of the states presidential votes were cast in 2012 -- to offset Trumps victories across much of the rest of the state. These former bellwether counties are much whiter and less college-educated than the country as a whole. Lets find a coin, and flip it. Please keep this in mind as you continue to read through our bellwether analysis. A majority of voters here had backed the eventual winner of presidential elections every time since 1964. But that's no longer the case. Once you have found all the results and looked at the trends, remember, these counties are the best counties at predicting an election outcome! Or itcould have almost 10.1 million residents, like Los Angeles County. Here are the top 30 sorted by the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote in 2008, thats the DPV 08 column: Find out at politico.com/2020-election/results. Arguably, it was 2016 and not 2020 when bellwether counties first showed signs of falling by the wayside, given their dramatic swing to the right in that election. Latest voter registration totals:Undeclared: 105,097Republicans: 87,763Democrats: 77,383. Latestvoter registration totals:Democrats: 521,881Republicans: 248,934Unaffiliated: 66,775Other: 45,567. This Gulf Coast county is home to Tampa and has gone with the statewide winner in every presidential election since 1960. That is 19 counties still standing after 10 elections! Fact check: What's true and what's false about the 2020 election, Joe Biden says democracy 'proved to be resilient' after Hawaii casts final ballots in Electoral College, Election security officials: 'No evidence voting systems compromised', Disputing Trump, Barr says no widespread election fraud, How Biden managed to win far more votes in 2020 than Obama did in 2008 but far fewer counties. And like so many electoral trends, demographics play a major role in explaining why these once-bellwether counties finally missed the mark in 2020. Ohio (18 electoral votes) - Lean Republican. Until this year. The divisions were everywhere. A total of 35 counties voted for the winner of each presidential election from 1980 through 2012. Enter Donald Trump. Found an error on our site? Sitting at the same Kozy Corners diner table that president Barack Obama ate from when on his own re-election campaign in July 2012, Mr Brikmanis, a lawyer, believes local Democrats' failure to get votes is also linked to the broader economic decline being experienced by rural and rust belt communities across the Midwest. or even dive into the markdown files yourself to submit improvements. In Westmoreland County, Virginia - a small, rural community south of Washington DC that's failed to be a bellwether only twice since 1928, and is home to twice the number of African Americans than the national average - he beat Mr Biden by 16 points. These are the bellwether counties. Fourth, it lists whether they won Florida, Ohio and Iowa Obama won them, Trump won them, Biden lost them. There were 1.3 million voters, or a quarter of all the state's voters, in just eight counties in that stretch. While Trump won every county in the state in the GOP primary, he posted his best result in Luzerne 77 percent. (The highest value being 66.1%), When sorted from the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (at the 2008 election), we can see that there are 25 counties that have a percentage Democrat vote greater than 60% at the 2008 election. This website merely reports on substantial allegations made by well-known public figures, elected officials, members of congress, and their legal teams, and will correct errors when notified. Arguably, it was 2016 and not 2020 when bellwether counties first showed signs of falling by the wayside, given their dramatic swing to the right in that election. hide caption. Bellwether counties are important, and their significance should not be downplayed. Watauga has gone for the winner statewide in each of the last three presidential elections and three Senate races since 2008. Since 1960, Democrats have won Rockingham County only three times. Republicans have paid some attention. Trump also needs to overperform in Macomb, another Detroit suburb, which narrowly went for Obama in 2012. Learn about the anomalies, strange events, and eyewitness accounts surrounding the 2020 election. By Randy Yeip and Stuart A. Thompson. A total of 35 counties voted for the winner of each presidential election from 1980 through 2012. As such, the margins in bellwether counties became substantially more Republican even as the country only became a little more Republican, as you can see in the chart below. On Dec. 14, President-elect Joe Biden secured his victory after he received306 votes from the Electoral College, per USA TODAY. Obama won it with 53 percent of the vote while winning statewide by just 75,000 votes in 2012. It also backed Gov. Obeng (2016) was similarly skeptical, noting that bellwethers run the risk of producing models that explain what has happened but cannot predict the future. Most of the statistics in the meme are true but they are not proof of voter fraud. There are 25 counties with a Democrat percentage vote over 60%. We relaxed the constraint by introducing the concept of a swing county, i.e. That includes10elections, includingObama in 2008 and Trump in 2016. Trump, who has tended to run better with voters without college degrees, got trounced in the primary in Wake earlier this year. In the 1990s, he says, Democrats ran for many local county positions unopposed. One of the big four suburban collar counties ringing Philadelphia and the fourth-most populous county in the state Bucks is always competitive. The Bellwether County to Watch in Pennsylvania . New Hampshire (4 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. But it's also not unprecedented. Weve been losing a lot of younger people to other areas of the country. Republicans Ulysses S. Grant and William Howard Taft won a majority of the presidential popular vote but lost a handful of seats in House, too. Other counties to watch: Clinton has to drive up the margins in counties along the shores of Lake Erie, from Lucas (Toledo) to most notably Cuyahoga (Cleveland). But there was only one county Clallam, Washington which voted Democrat. In fact, according to David Wasserman of The Cook Political Report, just 303 counties were decided by single-digit margins in 2016, compared to 1,096 counties that fit that description in 1992. But its population has steadily diversified, including a surge in Asian and Latino voters, which has made it more competitive Obama carried it twice. Were doing a lot of adult retraining, he said. Want to dive deeper? The most impressive of those was Valencia County, New Mexico, which voted for the victor in every presidential election from 1952 to 2016. Other counties to watch: Pima (where Tucson is). If Trump can't win back or cut into margins in places like Prince William, Fairfax and Loudon, he likely can't win the state. | AP Photo, By Darren Samuelsohn, Katie Glueck, Kyle Cheney and Daniel Strauss. In fact, a national coalition of election security officials described the general election as "the most secure in American history," per USA TODAY. Read about our approach to external linking. She blames much of that on the "Trump effect" - Mr Trump's ability to engage people in politics by appealing to their fears and discontents. The state's demographics suggest it could go blue one day. If you'd like to assist or contribute in some way, learn how. The Milwaukee suburb went for Obama by just 3 points in 2012, but went for George W. Bush in 2004 when Wisconsin was the closest state of that election, though it went for Democrat John Kerry. These counties were geographically clustered in the Midwest and in the Northeast. Utah (6 electoral votes) - Likely Republican. Their hopes are real. 12. We sorted the counties from highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (in the 2008 election). Bucks has three times the voters than its neighboring county to the north. It's true that both Obama in 2008 and Trump in 2020 won in Florida, Ohio and Iowa. Just a tiny fraction of them truly matter. These are places that are demographically strong for Republicans in the abstract, but might have had something that kept them closer to 50-50.". A caveat: because its black population is higher than the state average (21 percent versus 13 percent), the county has gone narrowly for Democrats even in 2004 and 2000 when George W. Bush won the state. But its also home to the largest concentration of registered Republicans in the state. Or, if you dont have enough time, how many of the top 10 switch counties, which overwhelmingly voted Democrat in 2008 (with a percentage Democrat vote over 58% ! Other counties to watch: Clark County (Las Vegas, Henderson), Democrats have to drive up big margins in Las Vegas, something they have lots of experience doing. Now imagine getting 21 out of 22! As long as a candidate wins enough electoral votes from other states, there is noreason it's impossible to win an election while losing Florida, Ohio, or Iowa. That report was issued on Nov. 12. our Gitlab account where you can Answer (1 of 33): Because "bellwether counties" are a load of horse manure. The second-most populous county in the state, northern Nevadas Washoe County is home to Reno. In 132 years, no president has received more votes in his run for reelection and lost. Nobody forgot about politics.". Combined, they had more than twice the votes of Denver proper and 30 percent of all the votes statewide. 2020 Election (1210) 4. This populous, longtime Republican county has shifted in the last two presidential elections, as demograpic change has swept the metro Atlanta area. They are: Notice RANSOM, SARGENT, and MARSHALL in particular. But those states represent just 29, 18and six electoral votes, respectively. Trump, who needs to pick off one Democratic leaning state, added a rally here Sunday night. Arizona (11 electoral votes) - Lean Republican. There are numerous theories about why it happened in 2020. And as was true in 2016, those counties voted substantially to the right of the nation. 7. The more people can work out and see for themselves that the data clearly indicates a different outcome, the better. Election bellwether counties in the United States are counties that vote in alignment with the country as a whole in United States presidential elections, so that the county votes for the candidate who ultimately wins the election. Considering how many counties there are in the USA (we h. Hillsborough made up more than half that margin Obama won the county by 36,000 votes. To flip Pennsylvania, Trump has to start in Bucks and expand in places like Northampton. The strongest bellwether counties are those that back the winning candidate in all elections. Their ability and sensitivity to dramatically switch parties in 2000, 2008 and 2016, is outstanding. This county voted with the popular vote each time. Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 258,050Unaffiliated: 228,638Republicans: 185,694Libertarian: 3,711. You should now have a real tangible sense of how difficult it is to get a streak of 10. Watch the margins in Story (Ames) and Scott (Davenport). Some say it's not only the polarisation induced by the outgoing president that's to blame for traditional bellwether counties' failure to correctly predict the election. We already claimed that bellwether counties are a lot more than statistical curiosities, but lets assume for the time being that normal rules of probability apply. Neither Clinton nor Trump won here during the caucuses in this Mississippi River county. Dont simply gloss over this. Re-doing the analysis we obtain 35 modern bellwether counties after the 2016 election. Website Updates Paused In 2008, Obama received69,498,516 votes, per the Federal Election Commission. What's the least amount of exercise we can get away with? For Trump to win, he has to carry this populous Detroit suburb. The county narrowly voted for Bush in 2000 but has gone Democratic in the three presidential elections since then, though never by more than 52 percent. Other counties to watch: Counties where Clinton has to drive up the score include Bexar (San Antonio), Hidalgo (McAllen) and Travis (Austin). He would have to really drive up big margins in the less populous counties in the mountainous Western part of the state, as well as Chesterfield (south of Richmond) and Virginia Beach. Did they narrowly miss out on voting for the Democrat party in 2020? From 1980 through 2016, there were 19 counties that consistently voted for the eventual president. 6. (From a purely random statistics perspective, there should only be 1 or 2 standing. So those suburban whites are key here and might tell a story not just about who wins the state, but who wins nationally. Green Bays Brown County voted for George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004, then Barack Obama in 2008, then flipped to Mitt Romney in 2012. Statewide results: 2012: Romney 53%-44% - 2008: McCain 54%-45%. It might be actually the best bellwether in the state, as it closely mirrored the statewide vote in both 2008 and 2012, but it has fewer voters than Jefferson, which we highlighted. Their concerns are real. "End of day, the solution is complicated but the problem is very simple," wrote a user who shared the meme on Instagram. We looked at the most recent swing counties and determined how many of the strongest Democrat voting counties in 2008, swung back to the Democrat party in 2020. No county more closely reflected Obama's wins in 2008 and 2012 than Monroe, home to Key West and the rest of the Keys. Ottawa County wasn't the only swing county to get the outcome wrong this time around. Hillary Clinton speaks during a rally at the Abraham Lincoln High School on Jan. 31 in Des Moines, Iowa. "We call them bellwethers because there's some fluke statistic, sometimes they are the right mix of different demographics. If bellwethers were just a statistical curiosity and purely random, we could expect half of these counties to pick the winning party at the 2020 election. We organized this by poll-closing time (all in Eastern time for the latest poll-closing times in that state), so you can follow along as the night goes: 1. But Northampton went closely with the statewide margin in 2012. Georgia (16 electoral votes) - Lean Republican. It all starts in Salt Lake, a place more liberal than you might think. Side note Could the Florida Keys tell us who wins? Yes, another Hillsborough! So we took 15 of the states where this election has been hotly waged and identified one county in each that has gone with the winner or closely reflected the statewide margin in each. Moving forward, it is entirely possible that there will be no single county that consistently indicates the results of a national election. Jacksonvilles Duval County has been a reliable Republican performer over the years, though it nearly went for Obama in 2008 in large part due to high African-American turnout. A total of 35 counties voted for the winner of each presidential election from 1980 through 2012. They have a rare and unique property of having a perfect demographic mix that allows them to vote for either party based on the merits of each election, and always get it right. Much of the rest of the state is rural and ruby red Republican. Until this year. What results did you discover? It went for Romney in 2012 (when he won it), but Obama in 2008 (when the Democrat did). Their emotions and decision making process are real. There are more than 3,000 counties in the United States, but in presidential elections they are not all created equal. In the western mountains on the border with Tennessee, it's home to Boone, which includes Appalachian State. "It wasn't part of his strategy.". Hamilton is ringed by heavily Republican Butler, Warren and Clermont counties, and it shares a border with Indiana, which is giving hope to GOP officials who think Trumps running mate, Indiana Gov. University of New Hampshire . Demographics (84) It went for Romney 54 to 44 percent, nearly reflecting the overall margin. The highest percentage being 66.1%. To get an idea as to whether Clinton could win it, watch Tarrant County. Republicans have a voter registration advantage here but in recent presidential elections, its had consistently tight margins: In 2012 Obama won it by less than 4,000 votes. There are 22 counties in the US that managed to vote for the winning party in every single election from 1988 to 2016. Four years later, Caswell is still looking for a second act for its . We welcome any suggestions and content contibutions with credible references that help others understand the key election integrity issues. If Clinton's winning there, it means she's hitting marks with young voters. Read about our approach to external linking. It's the wrong question. The Americans who almost always predict the president With a total turnout. You have probably noticed by now that with each new section we write, we are relaxing the constraints to make it easier to build a case for the Democrats winning the 2020 election.
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